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Humanity’s Challenge: 4 new years with Bush in the White House

© Lars Ivar Owesen-Lein Borge/Enkidu.

Throughout the world the news about Bush’ victory was met with shock and disbelief. What went wrong in America? What were the voters thinking? Any European conventional wisdom or theory about how modern democracies work, would indicate that someone who has lost his job, someone whose children daily risk their lives in a dubious war in Iraq, or must experience that there is no money for their health care nor education system, due to generous tax relief to the rich and wealthy, will massively vote for change. Well, they did not.

Even working class and lower middle class individuals who have had their standard of living and level of social security markedly reduced during Bush, voted massively for him, actually giving him the legitimacy and mandate he lacked 4 years ago. Bush’ esoteric approach to world politics and his dualistic Armageddon rhetoric obviously appealed to the voters: America is great; the Americans are God's chosen people, united in battle against the evil.

The president’s new mandate from the voters indicates a massive support among the Americans for the president’s opposition to abortion, gay marriage, positive discrimination policies and other ”liberal” issues. To the astonishment of the world, the American voters gave conservative values and their reactionary opposition to gay marriage, abortion, indeed minority groups and their rights in general, a higher priority than their own living conditions and their own social security and welfare. This situation will also certainly be reflected in American politics in the next 4 years.

The president has the legitimacy he needs to stop any liberal or social reform in the United States. The only hope that remains, is that Bush, now that he does not need to think about re-election anymore, might reflect upon his reputation in the history books and makes some attempts of civilised statesman’s behaviour, but most likely he will continue more or less in the same path as before. Few changes are to be expected in domestic nor in international politics after this overwhelming support from the people. The people has spoken, and they get what they want…

Most Europeans would indeed have preferred a change in the White House and the comments in the press on the day after the election also reflects this. The conservative newspaper Aftenposten in Oslo characterised Bush as an “American accident”:

"Seen with our eyes, we won't hesitate to call George W Bush an 'American accident.”

The front page of The Independent needs no further comment:

However, would things really have been better for the world with Kerry? I must admit that I hoped that Kerry would win the elections. I sincerely believed that this would be better, not just for the world, but also for the Americans. Now, after a couple of days of reflection, I am not that sure anymore…  Perhaps the world should be happy that things went the way they did.

America perceives that it is at war, and under these circumstances, how much change in the foreign policy could have been expected in a short-term perspective if Kerry indeed had won? Would he for instance withdraw the American troops from Iraq? Not at all! Kerry has several times stated that the war on terror must go on. The snowball is already rolling. By necessity Kerry would have been forced to continue more or less in the same path as his predecessor in office. Kerry will also regard his primary duty as strengthening the interests of America as a superpower.

However, Kerry would most likely have given the foreign policy of the United States a new surface, more acceptable to the world, which in the end might have turned out even more destructive and dangerous under the current circumstances. He might even have convinced several naïve allies in “Old” and “New” Europe to send yet more troops to Iraq using his reputation as a liberal internationalist to gain support for America’s war…  Even Germany and France might have been forced to debate the issue anew and who knows what the outcome would have been in a flow of Kerry enthusiasm. Now the fronts remain clear, and Bush can try to clean up his own mess.

Environmentalists have warned against Bush arguing that his policies are a threat not just to America, but in reality to the entire world. Would America pollute less with Kerry as a president? Kerry as an individual seems to be sympathetic to the Kyoto agreement, which he has expressed at some occasions. However, would he be as positive in office? There are several indications to the contrary:  On the official John Kerry for President website [ http://www.johnkerry.com/ ] we can read "The Kerry-Edwards Vision for a Cleaner Environment.", which does not mention Kyoto with a single word. Furthermore, in another document "The Kerry-Edwards plan for clean coal" available as pdf file on the site, we can read the following disturbing statement:

"Unlike the current Administration, John Kerry and John Edwards will offer an alternative to the Kyoto process that leads the world toward a more equitable and effective answer, while preserving coal miners' jobs… "

An alternative to the Kyoto process that also preserves coal miners’ jobs… We do not need much fantasy to predict the outcome of this… 

I truly believe that 4 new years with Bush in office might turn out disastrous both for large segments of the American population as well as for the world. In the United States, the differences between the rich and the poor will continue to increase dramatically. The ridiculously big budget deficit that Bush somehow must deal with, while continuing his tax reduction politics and finance American military endeavours in the Middle East, might create problems for the world economy.

Yet, we might also expect a massive resistance to American policies and intrusions around the world. It is likely that the Muslim world increasingly will send support to Iraq, making the already escalating situation even more violent. The positive aspect of this, however, is that the world has no illusions and we can act and react accordingly. 

© Enkidu

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